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Mango Disease Models


The bacterial disease Xanthomonas arboricola pv. juglandis, is called walnut blight. The bacterium overwinters in infected buds and catkins. Buds with the highest bacterial populations are the ones most likely to develop blight. During early spring growth, bacteria spread along developing shoots and nuts. There seems to be very little secondary spread to other shoots and trees by raindrop. This results in local infection centers within a tree or orchard. Frequent, prolonged rain, just before and during bloom and for about 2 weeks after, result in severe blight outbreaks within these local infection centers. This is when nuts are most susceptible.


On leaves, infection appears first as reddish brown spots, on the stems as black, slightly depressed spots often girdling the shoots. Young, infected leaf and catkin buds turn dark brown or black and soon die. The disease is serious on nuts, where it causes black slimy spots of varying sizes. The organism penetrates the husk, the shell, and occasionally the edible meat. Late-season infection produces black rings on husks.

The bacterial disease is favoured by warm, moderate seasons with temperatures of 10-28°C, light and frequently rainfalls with heavy winds and dews. Local dispersial is possible by rain splash.



  • leaves on peach: small, pale-green to yellow, circular or irregular spots. Spots enlarge, become darker to deep-purple, brown or black. The disease areas drop out, given a shot-hole appearance. A darf ring of disease tissue is left. Infected leaves turn yellow and drop off.
  • leaves on plum fruit: symptoms may be different, large, sunken black lesions or only small pit- like lesions depending on the cultivar.
  • twigs of peach: spring cankers occur on the overwintering twigs and on watersprouts before green shoots are produced; firstly small, water-soaked, dark blisters (1-10cm), sometimes girdle the twig, which causes the death of the top of the twig. Below the dead area (here are the bacteria present) a dark, so called “black trip”occurs.
  • twigs of plum, apricot: cankers are perennial and continue to develop in twigs of 2 and 3 years old.

Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni is a bacterial disease and is listed as a quarantine pest in the EEP A2 list. Mainly species of Prunus spp. are attacked by the bacterium and particularly fruit crops as almonds, peaches, cherries, plums and apricots. X. arboricola occurs now worldwide, but was firstly found and described in North America (it is not realy clear if it spread from there or has naturally a wide distribution range).


Xanthomonas arboricola is a aerobic, gram-negative bacterium.

The bacterium overwinters in the intercellular spaces of the cortex, phloem and xylem parenchyma of the peach tree. On plum and apricot summer cankers are formed in one season, which develops the following spring and provides a source of inoculum. Also, plum buds and fallen leaves are an overwintering source for the bacterial disease.

In springtime the bacteria start to multiply and cause the epidermis to rupture- lesions are visible and are called spring canker. Inoculum from these cankers is disseminating by rain and wind and infect healthy plant tissues via stomata. On these leaves, lesions are developing, which exude bacteria and are called secondary infections.

Summer cankers develop in the green tissue of the shoot, but are sealed off by a periderm layer and dry out during summertime, which reduces the viability of the bacteria- therefore summer cankers in plum and peach are not of great importance as overwintering sites or initial infections the following season. In general, it is the late infections of shoots, occurring during rains just and during leaf fall in autumn which constitute the primary inoculum source for the following spring.

Modelling X. arboricola

Sensors: Air Temperature, relative Humidtiy, Leafwetness and Precipitation
in we have three models of X. arboricola, depending on the development stage of the plant/infection of different plant material (blossom, leaf and fruit infection) and a propagation model.

The bacterial disease is favoured by warm, moderate seasons with temperatures of 10-28°C, light and frequently rainfalls with heavy winds and dews. Local dispersial is possible by rainsplash in orchards.

Severity classes depend on the inoculum (last year epidemiology, the susceptibility of the variety and the weather conditions).

    1. Modelling Blossom Infection

Temperatures between 15°C and 30°C, leafwetness is more than 0.

In the graph a weak infection of the blossom has been determined, a moderate and severe infection was not calculated (has to reach 100% on the line) because leaf wetness periode was too short.

    1. Modelling Fruit and Leaf Infection (additional precipitation is necessary to determine infections)

Temperatures between 15°C and 30°C, preciptation is more than 0, leafwetness is more than 0, it is not night.

Also this model seperates between weak, moderate and severe infections in dependance of the sum of rain. . A weak infection (temp. between 15 and 30°C, precipitation and leaf wetness) was determined on 16th of June because of the precipitation and the long leaf wetness period afterwards as well as the temperatures (10-17,5°C) during this time. A moderate inection (precipitation sum > 2mm) was not calculated (but nearly 98% of infection) as well as a severe infection (Precipitation sum > 5 mm) on that time.

    1. Propagation Index

Temperatures between 15 and 30°C, leaf wetness more than 0 or relative humidity higher than 80%. Reset all 48hours. The graph shows 70% propagation on the 19th of July.